Davis and Fox; Brexit HawksIf anyone in the U.K. didn’t believe that Brexit was going to happen, they should have had their eyes very firmly opened yesterday.The first joint Press Conference given by the major Protagonists, Michel Barnier and David Davis since negotiations began in earnest … [Read more...] about Hard Brexit? Sell Sterling!
Draghi brings new confidence.Who would have thought, an Italian Central Banker delivering sound economic policies and a credible presence?Following a Dutchman and a Frenchman and likely to be followed by a German, Mario Draghi has emerged as a serious presence in the global economic … [Read more...] about ECB Gaining Credibility
U.K. inflation fall relieves MPCThe prospect of a difficult MPC meeting on August 3rd receded somewhat yesterday as the U.K. released inflation data for June.The headline consumer price index fell from 2.9% in May to 2.6% in June following a fall in fuel costs. Despite BoE Governor Mark … [Read more...] about Healthcare Trumps Inflation.
Doves worried about 3% headlineInflation has been rising in the U.K. following the precipitous fall in the value of the pound in the aftermath of the Brexit referendum. Although the effect of that fall should be waning it has driven the Consumer Price Index close to 3%. The Government target for … [Read more...] about Inflation Data to provide MPC Guidance
What else matters?Inflation, if you want to know how serious it is; ask a Zimbabwean!The U.S. released inflation data for June on Friday and whether it is the brilliant job being done by the FOMC in raising interest rates, “global factors” a weak housing market or some other reason, there is … [Read more...] about Central Banks and Inflation; A Difficult Relationship
May survives her first test.When Theresa May saw the result of the exit poll at 10.00pm on the evening of June 8th she has admitted to “shedding a little tear”. It is likely that come the Autumn, Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn is expecting her to “Cry me a River”!The summer recess of Parliament … [Read more...] about It might as well rain until September
Broadbent sides with colleagues The makeup up the MPC, five Bank of England officials and four independents, is being brought into sharp relief. Chief Economist Andrew Haldane is perhaps tellingly, the only one of the “officials” prepared to put his head above the “rate hike … [Read more...] about MPC facing “Tricky” decision
Deputy Governor talks trade, not rates.Ben Broadbent the Bank of England’s Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy made a speech in Scotland yesterday in which he studiously avoided any mention of interest rate policy. Analysts were hoping to receive some advance guidance on both his view of the … [Read more...] about Broadbent Teases Market
Damned if they do, Damned if they don’t There are three weeks until the next MPC meeting in the U.K. but traders will already have the date circled in red on their calendars. A one month break in meetings should have given MPC members more time to come to a considered judgement but … [Read more...] about MPC Facing Critical Vote.
Trump Hails the “Hamburg Discord”Following his turning of the Paris Climate Accord into a purely financial issue, Donald Trump managed to assail the other nineteen members of G20 with a cult of personality lacking in any solid policy for dealing with the rest of the world and America’s place in … [Read more...] about G20? No, it’s G19+1!